"Expert Political Judgment" primarily examines the accuracy and reliability of expert opinions in political forecasting. It investigates whether experts can make accurate predictions about political events and compares their success rates with those of well-informed laypeople and simple trend extrapolations.

Tetlock categorizes experts into two types using Isaiah Berlin's metaphor: "foxes" and "hedgehogs." Foxes draw on a wide range of knowledge and are flexible in their thinking, while hedgehogs focus deeply on one area and apply rigid solutions. The book demonstrates that foxes are generally more successful in making accurate predictions due to their adaptability and broad perspective.

Tetlock highlights a paradox where the qualities that make for good scientific judgment, such as open-mindedness and adaptability, are often undervalued by the media. Instead, the media tends to favor pundits who display confidence and ideological commitment, even though these traits do not necessarily correlate with accurate forecasting. This insight is crucial for understanding the disconnect between public perception and actual expertise.