"In the Likely Event" follows the story of Izzy Astor and Nate Phelan, who meet during a plane ride that ends in a crash. Their lives are forever changed by this event, leading them down separate paths in politics and the military, respectively. Despite their diverging lives, they continue to encounter each other, culminating in a high-stakes reunion in Afghanistan where Nate must protect Izzy.

The key themes in "In the Likely Event" include the unpredictability of fate, the enduring power of connection, and resilience and second chances. The story emphasizes how a single moment can change lives, the persistent bond between Izzy and Nate despite life's challenges, and their individual journeys of overcoming obstacles and finding love again.

Throughout "In the Likely Event," Izzy evolves from a skeptic of destiny to a passionate politician, finding her voice and purpose. Nate transitions from a rugged charmer to a dedicated military professional. Their experiences, especially the plane crash and subsequent encounters, shape their growth and resilience, ultimately leading them to a second chance at love and happiness.