Longtermism emphasizes the profound impact of today's decisions on the vast, uncertain future, urging humanity to consider the high stakes involved in shaping it.

Longtermism is the belief that the future matters and that our actions today can significantly influence it. This perspective is crucial because the future could be vast, with countless generations yet to come. The decisions we make now can have a profound impact on these future lives. To illustrate this, consider humanity as an imprudent teenager. Like a teenager, humanity has most of its life ahead and the choices we make now can have lifelong impacts. Whether it's deciding how much to study, what career to pursue, or which risks are too risky, we should think not just about short-term thrills but also about the whole course of the life ahead of us. Another metaphor is history as molten glass. Currently, society is malleable and can be shaped into many forms. But at some point, the glass might cool, set, and become much harder to change. The resulting shape could be beautiful or deformed, or the glass could shatter altogether, depending on what happens while the glass is still hot. The third metaphor is the path towards longterm impact as a risky expedition into uncharted terrain. In trying to make the future better, we don't know exactly what threats we will face or even exactly where we are trying to go; but, nonetheless, we can prepare ourselves. We can scout out the landscape ahead of us, ensure the expedition is well resourced and well coordinated, and, despite uncertainty, guard against those threats we are aware of. Longtermism is not just a philosophical concept; it's a practical approach to decision-making that can guide activists, researchers, policy makers, and all of us in our daily lives. It's about taking seriously the potential size of the future and the high stakes involved in shaping it. If humanity survives to see the future, the decisions we make now could be pivotal in determining its course.

Moral change, as seen in slavery abolition and women's rights, can significantly shape the trajectory of the future, making today's value shifts crucial from a longtermist perspective.

The concept of moral change is explored through the lens of slavery abolition, a significant shift in societal values. Slavery, despite its abhorrence, was historically ubiquitous, practiced across continents for various reasons. The abolition of slavery, therefore, represents a significant moral change, freeing millions from lives of misery. This change in societal values is not only significant but also contingent, meaning it could have happened differently or not at all. The status of women throughout history is another example of moral change. Women, who were systematically oppressed and denied voting rights, now have the right to vote in every democracy and have greater opportunities to work and participate in public life. However, attitudes towards gender roles still vary widely across different societies, indicating that moral change is ongoing. The impact of moral change can be long-lasting, as suggested by the history of religious and moral movements. The changes we make to today's moral values could persist for centuries or even thousands of years. This idea is further explored in the context of trajectory changes, which refers to the potential for our actions today to shape the entire trajectory of the future. Changing society's values is particularly important from a longtermist perspective. The values that humanity adopts in the next few centuries might shape the entire trajectory of the future, making the moral changes we make today of utmost importance.

The lock-in of values, influenced by cultural, religious, and technological factors, can shape the moral trajectory of society, potentially limiting moral diversity and defining the contours of our future.

Value lock-in is a phenomenon where a single value system or a set of value systems persist for an extremely long time, potentially curtailing moral diversity and upheaval. This concept is illustrated through the rise of Confucianism, which was locked in for over a thousand years. The values that humanity adopts in the next few centuries could shape the entire trajectory of the future. The persistence of values is also evident in religious texts like the Babylonian Talmud and dietary restrictions followed by different cultures. These values influence political decision-making and societal norms even today. However, the lock-in of values is not always beneficial. If the values of any time or place were to be locked in, it could lead to a dystopian future. For instance, if the Western values of two and a half centuries ago were locked in, the world would still permit slavery, racial hierarchy, and gender inequality. The chapter also discusses the potential for technological advancements, particularly artificial intelligence, to enable those in power to lock in their values indefinitely. This could limit the number of possible futures and set the broad moral contours of society. The chapter concludes by emphasizing the importance of improving current moral norms to ensure a better future. The impact of these improvements could last for centuries or even thousands of years, shaping the future indefinitely.

The fragility of civilization, underscored by historical collapses and present threats, necessitates proactive measures to ensure its survival.

In the year 100 AD, two major empires, roughly equal in territorial extent and population, encompassed more than half of the world's population. The collapse of these empires serves as a stark reminder of the fragility of civilization. Civilizations can collapse, and when they do, recovery may not be possible. This is not just a historical phenomenon; it's a risk that persists today. The collapse of civilization could be triggered by a variety of factors, including environmental degradation, economic instability, or social unrest. For instance, the fall of the Roman Empire was precipitated by a combination of internal strife, economic difficulties, and external threats. Similarly, the Mayan civilization collapsed due to a combination of environmental changes, warfare, and social upheaval. The risk of collapse is not confined to the past. Today, we face threats that could lead to the end of civilization as we know it. These threats range from nuclear war to pandemics to climate change. If we fail to address these risks, we could face a future in which civilization collapses and never recovers. The philosopher Derek Parfit has made significant contributions to the field of population ethics, which evaluates actions that might change who is born, how many people are born, and what their quality of life will be. His work underscores the importance of ensuring the survival of civilization and reducing the risks of extinction, collapse, and technological stagnation. In conclusion, the collapse of civilization is a real and present danger. We must take steps to safeguard our future and ensure the survival of civilization.

Economic stagnation could potentially last for centuries, altering societal values and increasing the risk of extinction, yet the potential for growth restart remains.

Economic stagnation, a period of little to no growth, could potentially last for centuries or even millennia. This would result in people being much poorer than they could have been if technological progress had continued. However, the argument is that as long as growth restarts at some point, the delay, whether it's ten years or a thousand years, is minor compared to the millions, billions, or trillions of years ahead of us. Yet, the uncertainty surrounding the length of stagnation means it could be very long indeed. Factors such as recurrent global catastrophes, cultural norms inconducive to progress, or the exhaustion of all recoverable fossil fuels could potentially cause stagnation to last for tens of thousands of years. The world population could also decrease dramatically as a result of a global catastrophe, making further technological progress very difficult. However, if there are a diversity of societies, with evolving cultures and institutional arrangements over time, then it seems likely that one will manage to restart growth. A long period of stagnation could substantially increase the probability of extinction or civilisational collapse. The only way we got out of an unsustainable state was by advancing technologically.

The morality of creating happiness through population growth is complex and challenges our understanding of what makes the world a better place.

A complex area of moral philosophy known as population ethics explores concept of creating happiness is explored, focusing on whether bringing more happy people into existence makes the world a better place. A psychological study is referenced where participants were asked how much better or worse the world would be if one new person were added to it. The results showed that people, on average, think that it’s a good thing to bring a new happy person into existence and that it’s a bad thing to bring a new unhappy person into existence. However, the average view is challenged, as it suffers from several problems. For instance, if the world consisted of a million people whose lives were filled with excruciating suffering, one could make the world better by adding another million people whose lives were also filled with excruciating suffering, as long as the suffering of the new people was ever-so-slightly less bad than the suffering of the original people. This chapter also discusses the importance of the issue of how many people have net positive lives, and the psychological data we have on it is extremely limited. Despite the complexity of the topic, it is of great importance for thinking about the long-term future.

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What We Owe the Future - Book Summary (2024)

William MacAskill

The book "What We Owe the Future" is a moral exploration of our responsibility towards future generations, arguing that our actions today can significantly shape the trajectory of humanity and that we should prioritize long-term impacts in our decision-making.

Key Ideas

In contemplating the future, we are urged to consider humanity as a single life, living through every human existence that has ever been and will ever be. This perspective prompts two key questions: Has life so far been worth it? And, looking ahead, do we anticipate a future of optimism or dread?

The future could be vast and could swing between being very good or very bad. Over the past few centuries, humanity has made significant progress. Life expectancy has increased from less than thirty to seventy-three years, extreme poverty has decreased from 80% to less than 10%, and literacy rates have risen from 10% to over 85%.

However, the future's value depends on two factors: the relative value of potential future worlds and the likelihood of realizing them. While the relative value of these worlds might cause pessimism, the argument is made that the future will be more good than bad, on balance. Therefore, ensuring survival is as important as improving our trajectory.

The value of the future is a complex issue, but the overall trend appears to be positive. The world has been improving over time, and while it's challenging to predict whether this will continue in the long run, there are grounds for optimism. The worst possible futures, or "anti-eutopias," are unlikely to be as bad as possible, and the best possible futures, or "eutopias," could be incredibly good.

In conclusion, while the future is uncertain, there is a strong case for optimism. The world has been improving, and there is potential for this trend to continue. Therefore, it is crucial to ensure survival and strive to improve our trajectory.

The future of humanity is in our hands and the choices we make today will significantly impact the lives of future generations. We have a moral responsibility to consider the long-term implications of our actions and decisions. The concept of longtermism suggests that we should prioritize actions that have a positive impact on the vast number of people who will exist in the future. This includes improving societal values, navigating the development of AI responsibly, preventing the creation or use of new weapons of mass destruction, and maintaining peace between the world's great powers.

Actions:

Commit to Longtermism: Understand and embrace the concept of longtermism, which prioritizes the well-being of future generations.
Donate Wisely: Commit to donating a portion of your income to charities that focus on long-term impact.
Promote Peace: Advocate for peace and diplomacy to prevent conflicts that could lead to large-scale destruction.
Support Responsible AI Development: Support organizations and policies that promote the responsible development and use of artificial intelligence.
Educate Yourself and Others: Learn about the potential threats and opportunities that technological development presents for future generations.
Influence Policy: Engage in political processes to support policies that consider the long-term future of humanity.
Promote Value Changes: Advocate for societal value changes that could positively impact the future, such as environmental sustainability and equality.
Support Research: Support research into longtermism and related fields to better understand how we can positively impact the future.
Practice Sustainable Living: Adopt sustainable practices in your daily life to help preserve the planet for future generations.
Encourage Others: Spread the word about longtermism and encourage others to consider the long-term implications of their actions.